Refinance approval calculator
Lenders report every mortgage application to federal regulators under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA). We took the 2025 refinance applications, 840,929 of them, and counted how often lenders said no at each debt-to-income and loan-to-value level, state by state. Enter your numbers to see the denial rate for applications like yours, the reasons lenders gave, and the limits each agency sets.
Your state: denial rates and state rules
Pick a state above to see its denial rates next to the national average and the state rules that apply there.
How the calculator works
The calculator does three things: it works out your debt-to-income ratio (DTI) and loan-to-value ratio (LTV), puts each into the same bands HMDA uses, and looks up how many 2025 applications in that cell were denied.
Where the numbers come from
Every lender above a small size threshold reports each application to the federal government under HMDA. The records include the state, loan type, DTI, LTV, the lender’s decision and up to four reasons for a denial. We downloaded all 2025 records for the 50 states and D.C. from the FFIEC HMDA Data Browser with the loan purpose “refinancing”. That purpose leaves out cash-out refinances, which HMDA reports separately. Of the 1,408,031 records, we kept the ones that look like a typical homeowner refinance:
- first lien on the borrower’s principal residence, 1 to 4 units;
- a closed-end loan, not a home equity line, and not for a business purpose;
- a final decision: the loan closed, was approved but not accepted, or was denied.
That leaves 840,929 applications, of which lenders denied 154,545, or 18.4%. The tool covers conventional (484,172), VA (193,055) and FHA (162,924) loans. USDA refinances, 778 applications, are too few to split by state.
The formulas
DTI = (other monthly debts + new housing payment) ÷ gross monthly income × 100
LTV = (new loan + other liens that stay) ÷ home value × 100
denial rate = denied ÷ (closed + approved but not accepted + denied)
The LTV here is combined LTV: HMDA’s loan-to-value field counts every lien on the home, so a HELOC you keep raises it. Applications withdrawn by the borrower or closed for incompleteness are left out of the denominator, because the lender never made a decision on them.
How your cell is chosen
HMDA reports DTI in ranges below 36% and above 49%, and by whole percent from 36% to 49%; 50–60% is a single range. We use seven DTI bands: under 20, 20–35, 36–42, 43–45, 46–49, 50–60 and over 60. LTV goes into six bands: up to 60, 60–80, 80–90, 90–95, 95–100 and over 100.
The tool looks up your state, loan type, DTI band and LTV band. If that cell holds fewer than 30 applications, it uses the same cell for the whole country and tells you so. If the national cell is also under 30, it uses all national applications in your DTI band.
What the number can’t tell you
- No credit scores. HMDA collects which scoring model the lender used, but the public file does not include the score itself. Credit history is the third most common denial reason, and the tool can’t account for it.
- Only applications that reached a decision. People who asked a loan officer, heard “no” and never applied are not in the data.
- Applications, not people. Someone denied by one lender and approved by another appears twice.
- Exactly 50% DTI. HMDA puts 50% into the 50–60% group, where denials are high. Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter still accepts 50%, so the rate shown at that line overstates it.
Where denials jump: the 50% DTI line
For conventional loans, the denial rate stays between 10% and 13% from DTI 20% to 49%, then jumps to 78.9% at 50–60%. That matches Fannie Mae’s limit: Desktop Underwriter approves DTI up to 50% (Selling Guide B3-6-02), so a loan above it can’t be sold to Fannie Mae through the usual channel. In the 50–60% group, Desktop Underwriter applications were denied 58% of the time and Freddie Mac’s Loan Product Advisor applications 61%.
FHA and VA show no such cliff: 41.0% and 40.0% of applications at 50–60% were denied. FHA’s TOTAL scorecard has no fixed DTI cap, and VA looks at residual income, the money left each month after taxes, housing and debts.
| DTI | Conventional | FHA | VA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 20% | 16.2% | 34.2% | 13.1% |
| 20–35% | 9.9% | 35.2% | 30.5% |
| 36–42% | 10.5% | 30.9% | 29.5% |
| 43–45% | 12.1% | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| 46–49% | 13.2% | 33.6% | 33.7% |
| 50–60% | 78.9% | 41.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 60% | 91.2% | 94.0% | 56.6% |
| Not reported | 39.6% | 21.1% | 12.7% |
Two rows stand out. Conventional applications under 20% DTI are denied more often than those at 20–35%; across all loan types, denials in that group most often cite credit history and incomplete applications, not debt. And most applications with no DTI at all are VA and FHA refinances where the lender ran no automated underwriting: 159,950 VA and 89,873 FHA. That fits the VA Interest Rate Reduction Refinance Loan (IRRRL) and FHA Streamline, which often skip income checks. VA’s overall denial rate, 13.4%, is below the conventional 16.9%, yet at every DTI level from 20% up, VA applications are denied more often than conventional ones.
You may still see “43%” quoted as the DTI limit. That number came from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s qualified mortgage rule, which replaced the 43% cap with a price-based test; lenders have had to use the new test since October 1, 2022 (85 FR 86308).
Loan-to-value: where equity matters
For conventional loans, the lowest denial rate is at 60–80% LTV, 12.6%. It climbs to 20.9% at 90–95%, 54.5% at 95–100% and 93.6% above 100%, where the loan would be larger than the home is worth. VA loans stay between 7% and 12% at every LTV level, including above 100%. That fits the VA IRRRL, which does not require a new appraisal.
| Combined LTV | Conventional | FHA | VA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up to 60% | 15.2% | 50.7% | 11.3% |
| 60–80% | 12.6% | 35.2% | 9.5% |
| 80–90% | 16.7% | 31.6% | 8.0% |
| 90–95% | 20.9% | 30.3% | 7.2% |
| 95–100% | 54.5% | 22.0% | 7.4% |
| Over 100% | 93.6% | 79.7% | 7.1% |
The denial reason “collateral” (the home’s value or condition) appears in 14.5% of all denials. If your LTV sits right at a band edge, a slightly higher appraisal or paying down a few thousand dollars can move you into the next band.
Refinance denial rates by state
Denial rates range from 12.8% in New Hampshire to 28.3% in Florida. Texas, at 24.9%, is second highest. The table shows where denials are more common; it does not show why. Part of the gap comes from the mix of loans: a state with more FHA refinances will have a higher overall rate, since FHA applications are denied more often everywhere. Select a state name to load it into the calculator.
| State | Applications | Denied | Conventional | FHA | VA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Hampshire | 4,288 | 12.8% | 11.8% | 20.6% | 10.6% |
| Massachusetts | 15,129 | 13.1% | 11.5% | 21.9% | 11.4% |
| Wisconsin | 17,053 | 13.3% | 12.0% | 25.0% | 9.4% |
| Nebraska | 4,831 | 13.8% | 12.7% | 24.5% | 9.7% |
| Missouri | 18,919 | 13.9% | 12.4% | 21.1% | 10.9% |
| Washington | 25,954 | 14.0% | 12.2% | 26.3% | 11.6% |
| Vermont | 1,097 | 14.2% | 13.4% | 22.6% | 12.3% |
| Virginia | 29,008 | 14.3% | 13.9% | 23.1% | 11.3% |
| Wyoming | 1,743 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 20.7% | 10.1% |
| Montana | 2,988 | 14.8% | 15.3% | 21.8% | 11.1% |
| Rhode Island | 2,397 | 15.1% | 12.7% | 22.9% | 11.7% |
| Oregon | 10,451 | 15.3% | 12.6% | 25.5% | 13.5% |
| Idaho | 5,765 | 15.4% | 13.2% | 25.9% | 13.4% |
| Maine | 3,674 | 15.5% | 14.5% | 24.7% | 10.6% |
| Illinois | 31,375 | 15.5% | 13.2% | 28.9% | 11.8% |
| Minnesota | 12,790 | 15.8% | 13.7% | 29.2% | 11.7% |
| New Jersey | 19,830 | 15.9% | 14.3% | 22.9% | 11.6% |
| Delaware | 3,029 | 15.9% | 14.4% | 25.0% | 10.3% |
| District of Columbia | 1,196 | 16.1% | 15.5% | 22.1% | 15.0% |
| South Dakota | 1,871 | 16.2% | 13.4% | 36.7% | 10.5% |
| North Carolina | 36,009 | 16.3% | 16.8% | 23.7% | 11.9% |
| Hawaii | 2,056 | 16.3% | 19.8% | 30.5% | 9.7% |
| Utah | 12,505 | 16.5% | 15.4% | 24.4% | 11.5% |
| Michigan | 28,142 | 16.6% | 14.4% | 29.6% | 10.8% |
| North Dakota | 1,370 | 16.6% | 15.3% | 30.6% | 9.5% |
| Indiana | 20,235 | 16.6% | 15.7% | 23.5% | 10.6% |
| Ohio | 28,751 | 16.6% | 15.6% | 24.3% | 11.3% |
| Kentucky | 11,646 | 16.8% | 16.0% | 25.0% | 11.2% |
| Colorado | 23,772 | 17.0% | 13.6% | 35.4% | 12.3% |
| Tennessee | 22,246 | 17.0% | 16.9% | 23.7% | 12.2% |
| Arizona | 25,180 | 17.4% | 16.4% | 25.8% | 11.3% |
| Maryland | 17,753 | 17.5% | 16.0% | 26.8% | 12.3% |
| South Carolina | 17,345 | 17.6% | 17.5% | 25.8% | 12.9% |
| California | 96,036 | 17.6% | 15.5% | 29.1% | 14.1% |
| Kansas | 6,655 | 17.7% | 17.2% | 28.4% | 11.5% |
| Alaska | 1,388 | 17.7% | 20.4% | 24.8% | 13.8% |
| Iowa | 7,761 | 17.8% | 16.1% | 33.4% | 12.6% |
| Arkansas | 7,996 | 17.9% | 17.6% | 27.2% | 12.1% |
| Nevada | 8,815 | 17.9% | 19.6% | 22.1% | 11.8% |
| United States | 840,929 | 18.4% | 16.9% | 28.5% | 13.4% |
| Connecticut | 7,111 | 18.6% | 16.3% | 27.3% | 15.7% |
| Alabama | 14,392 | 19.5% | 19.8% | 28.8% | 13.5% |
| New Mexico | 5,089 | 19.7% | 19.8% | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Louisiana | 8,383 | 20.4% | 20.3% | 28.6% | 12.5% |
| Georgia | 34,091 | 20.5% | 19.2% | 30.6% | 14.0% |
| Pennsylvania | 23,590 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 31.7% | 15.9% |
| Mississippi | 7,096 | 21.4% | 22.2% | 31.3% | 13.5% |
| Oklahoma | 8,826 | 21.8% | 21.1% | 33.5% | 16.5% |
| New York | 13,562 | 22.0% | 20.0% | 36.2% | 18.6% |
| West Virginia | 3,160 | 22.3% | 23.5% | 34.2% | 12.6% |
| Texas | 76,557 | 24.9% | 24.7% | 34.9% | 17.6% |
| Florida | 50,023 | 28.3% | 29.2% | 37.0% | 19.4% |
What the agency allows and what your lender adds
Most refinances are underwritten to the rules of the agency that will buy or insure the loan: Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac for conventional loans, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) for FHA loans, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) for VA loans. A lender can set stricter rules on top, called overlays. When a lender’s website says “you need a 620 score”, that may be the lender’s rule rather than the agency’s.
| Program | DTI | Credit score | LTV, no cash out / cash-out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fannie Mae | 50% (DU); 36–45% manual | none in DU; 620 / 640 manual | 95–97% / 80% |
| Freddie Mac | not checked yet | not checked yet | not checked yet |
| FHA | no cap in TOTAL; 31/43 to 40/50 manual | 580 (500 at 90% LTV) | 97.75% / 80% |
| VA | 41% needs justification | none set by VA | IRRRL / 100% |
A Fannie Mae cash-out refinance also needs the current loan to be at least 12 months old and you to have been on title at least 6 months; above 45% DTI you need 6 months of reserves (B2-1.3-03). A no-cash-out refinance can give you back no more than 1% of the loan or $2,000, whichever is greater. The VA IRRRL rules on seasoning, rate drop and 36-month recoupment come from federal law (38 U.S.C. 3709).
Common questions
Is it hard to get approved for a refinance?
In 2025, lenders denied 18.4% of refinance applications without cash out that reached a decision: 16.9% of conventional, 28.5% of FHA and 13.4% of VA applications. The rate ranged from 12.8% in New Hampshire to 28.3% in Florida. The biggest single jump is at 50% DTI on conventional loans, where the denial rate goes from 13.2% to 78.9%.
What debt-to-income ratio do I need to refinance?
Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter accepts DTI up to 50%; manual underwriting allows 36%, or up to 45% with the required score and reserves. FHA’s TOTAL scorecard has no fixed cap, and manual FHA underwriting runs from 31/43 to 40/50. For VA, 41% is the point where the lender must justify the approval. Freddie Mac’s limits are not on this page yet because we have not checked them against its guide.
Can I refinance with a DTI above 50%?
It is rare on a conventional loan: 78.9% of conventional applications at 50–60% DTI were denied in 2025. FHA and VA applications in the same range were denied 41.0% and 40.0% of the time. FHA Streamline and the VA IRRRL often do not check income at all, so DTI may not be calculated.
What credit score do I need to refinance?
Fannie Mae sets no minimum score in Desktop Underwriter and asks for 620 (fixed rate) or 640 (ARM) on manually underwritten loans. FHA allows maximum financing from 580 and limits the loan to 90% of value at 500–579. VA sets no minimum. Lenders commonly ask for 620 on conventional loans and 580–620 on FHA and VA. HMDA does not publish scores, so this calculator can’t show denial rates by score.
What are the most common reasons a refinance is denied?
Across the 154,545 denials in 2025: debt-to-income ratio (23.7%), incomplete application (23.3%), credit history (20.1%), other (19.1%), collateral (14.5%), not enough cash to close (10.7%) and information that could not be verified (5.0%). A lender can list up to four reasons, so the shares add up to more than 100%.
What happens if my refinance application is denied?
Under Regulation B (12 CFR 1002.9), the lender has 30 days after receiving a completed application to notify you. The notice must give the specific reasons or tell you how to request them. A denial by one lender does not bind another, and you can apply elsewhere.
Is the denial rate a prediction of my result?
No. It is the share of 2025 applications with your state, loan type, DTI band and LTV band that lenders denied. HMDA contains no credit scores, and it does not show people who were turned away before applying. Your own result depends on your credit, documents and lender.
Why does my state make a difference?
Denial rates differ by more than 15 points between states. The data shows where denials are more common, not why. Part of the gap is the mix of loans, because FHA applications are denied more often everywhere and some states have more of them. Some states also have their own rules on refinancing, such as Texas home equity rules or taxes on recording a new mortgage, listed in the state block above.
Sources
- FFIEC HMDA Data Browser, 2025 data, and field definitions
- Fannie Mae Selling Guide: B3-6-02 Debt-to-Income Ratios, B3-5.1-01 Credit Scores; Eligibility Matrix
- HUD Handbook 4000.1, FHA Single Family Housing Policy
- 38 CFR 36.4340, VA underwriting standards
- 12 CFR 1002.9, Regulation B notice of action taken
- IRS Publication 555, community property
- Texas Constitution, article XVI, section 50
Related tools
- Refinance calculator: new payment with taxes, insurance, PMI and closing costs for your state. Use it to get the housing payment for the DTI above.
- Refinance breakeven calculator: how many months until the savings cover your closing costs.
Need your new payment first?
The refinance calculator works out principal, interest, taxes, insurance and closing costs for your state. Bring the monthly total back here as your housing payment.